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Freddy Wills |
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| We are off to a great MLB start at 11-6 on MLB Top Plays. Friday night we will pass on the card. Enjoy your night! |
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• Basketball Top Plays (+500) 5-0 L5 100% |
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| Last 7 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| ATS Picks | +400.0 units | +91.3% | 100% | 4-0 |
| Last 30 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| ATS Picks | +163.0 units | +15.0% | 60% | 6-4 |
| Top Play Picks | +39.7 units | +0.8% | 55% | 22-18 |
| Last 60 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| ATS Picks | +211.0 units | +5.0% | 54% | 21-18 |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 18, 2012 Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies |
Colorado Rockies -135 at 5DIMES |
Lost $135.0 |
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Red Sox +135 3* PLAY Although Cole Hamels has given up just 4ER in his 4 career starts vs. the Red Sox and carries a 2.79 ERA at home this year I’m going with the Sox because for one they are #2 in OPS vs. LHP with a .842 so you know they are going to score runs unless Hamels just out duels them and goes a complete game. I don’t see him going a complete game against the Braves. Hamels has faced an average opponent with an OPS vs. LHP rank of 20.5. Now he faces the 2nd ranked team and oh by the way he’s not backed by a very good bullpen with an ERA of 7.66 over their last 10 games and a 5.36 on the year. Boston’s bullpen which struggled early has rebounded quickly posting a 1.19 ERA over their last 10 and a 3.74 on the year. Daniel Bard catches a break facing the Phillies. He’s used to facing off against dominant teams like the Rays, Indians and Blue Jays. He’s faced an average opponent ranked 16th vs. RHP in OPS. The Phillies are 19th so I believe he will enjoy facing the Phillies. Boston has suddenly won 6 of 7 because of their bullpen strength and that long with individual success against Hamels will be the difference. Cody Ross and Adrien Gonzalez have 6 HR vs. Hamels and the team has 117 AB .291 and a .903 OPS vs. Mr. Hamels. Boston is averaging 7 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games combined. Rays -130 2.5* Rays are 14-4 at home this year and 39-16 in their last 55 games as a favorite. Shields dominated the NL last year posting a 3-1 record and a 1.32 ERA while posting a 42:4 K/B ratio. He held batters to a .145 average and now he looks to hold one of the NL’s best offenses in check in the Braves. Tommy Hanson takes the mound for the Braves and I’m still a bit skeptical. Hanson over his last 4 vs. the AL posted a 9.78 ERA. May is his worst month as he posts a 4.18 career ERA and he has not a single start on turf while Shields has 58 over the last 3 years alone. Shields also has a 3.14 ERA in his last 17 May starts before this year. Hanson main struggles have been BB and the HR. Rays are ranked 3rd and 6th in walks and HR so it will be a major challenge if he can’t locate his FB. IF he does throw it for strikes the Rays are #1 in the league vs. the fastball. Rockies -131 4.5* MLB POD The Mariners have struggled to score runs and win on the road. They are now 1-12 on the road with a .216 average and 2.4 runs per 9. They’ll go on the road to face the Rockies who struggle to keep teams from scoring runs. One of the two have to change and I’m betting the Rockies will be able to score enough runs to over come anything the Mariners do. For one they throw a pitcher out there that the Mariners haven’t seen. White was solid vs. the Padres who are a similar offensive team to the Mariners. Mariners are actually ranked 26th and 30th vs. White’s two best pitches so I’m betting he’ll have some success against the struggling Mariners. Rockies have been great at home in interleague play. They are 35-16 in their last 51 IL vs. a RH starter. That RH starter is Kevin Millwood a guy that made 9 starts vs. them last year so you bet the Rockies know about his stuff. Cuddyer, Helton, and Giambi three classy veterans are a combined 31-81 against Millwood who has struggled pitching at Coors Field where the Rockies are #2 in OPS .852 for home teams. They are also 6th vs. RHP and are scoring 7.90 runs per 9 vs. RHP with a .298 average. Their bullpen and starting pitching has kept this team from being a competitive team, but today they face a Mariners team that is just 15-46 in their last 65 as a road dog and they carry a 5.10 bullpen ERA on the road. |
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MLB | May 18, 2012 Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays |
Tampa Bay Rays -122 at BETONLINE |
Lost $122.0 |
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Red Sox +135 3* PLAY Although Cole Hamels has given up just 4ER in his 4 career starts vs. the Red Sox and carries a 2.79 ERA at home this year I’m going with the Sox because for one they are #2 in OPS vs. LHP with a .842 so you know they are going to score runs unless Hamels just out duels them and goes a complete game. I don’t see him going a complete game against the Braves. Hamels has faced an average opponent with an OPS vs. LHP rank of 20.5. Now he faces the 2nd ranked team and oh by the way he’s not backed by a very good bullpen with an ERA of 7.66 over their last 10 games and a 5.36 on the year. Boston’s bullpen which struggled early has rebounded quickly posting a 1.19 ERA over their last 10 and a 3.74 on the year. Daniel Bard catches a break facing the Phillies. He’s used to facing off against dominant teams like the Rays, Indians and Blue Jays. He’s faced an average opponent ranked 16th vs. RHP in OPS. The Phillies are 19th so I believe he will enjoy facing the Phillies. Boston has suddenly won 6 of 7 because of their bullpen strength and that long with individual success against Hamels will be the difference. Cody Ross and Adrien Gonzalez have 6 HR vs. Hamels and the team has 117 AB .291 and a .903 OPS vs. Mr. Hamels. Boston is averaging 7 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games combined. Rays -130 2.5* Rays are 14-4 at home this year and 39-16 in their last 55 games as a favorite. Shields dominated the NL last year posting a 3-1 record and a 1.32 ERA while posting a 42:4 K/B ratio. He held batters to a .145 average and now he looks to hold one of the NL’s best offenses in check in the Braves. Tommy Hanson takes the mound for the Braves and I’m still a bit skeptical. Hanson over his last 4 vs. the AL posted a 9.78 ERA. May is his worst month as he posts a 4.18 career ERA and he has not a single start on turf while Shields has 58 over the last 3 years alone. Shields also has a 3.14 ERA in his last 17 May starts before this year. Hanson main struggles have been BB and the HR. Rays are ranked 3rd and 6th in walks and HR so it will be a major challenge if he can’t locate his FB. IF he does throw it for strikes the Rays are #1 in the league vs. the fastball. Rockies -131 4.5* MLB POD The Mariners have struggled to score runs and win on the road. They are now 1-12 on the road with a .216 average and 2.4 runs per 9. They’ll go on the road to face the Rockies who struggle to keep teams from scoring runs. One of the two have to change and I’m betting the Rockies will be able to score enough runs to over come anything the Mariners do. For one they throw a pitcher out there that the Mariners haven’t seen. White was solid vs. the Padres who are a similar offensive team to the Mariners. Mariners are actually ranked 26th and 30th vs. White’s two best pitches so I’m betting he’ll have some success against the struggling Mariners. Rockies have been great at home in interleague play. They are 35-16 in their last 51 IL vs. a RH starter. That RH starter is Kevin Millwood a guy that made 9 starts vs. them last year so you bet the Rockies know about his stuff. Cuddyer, Helton, and Giambi three classy veterans are a combined 31-81 against Millwood who has struggled pitching at Coors Field where the Rockies are #2 in OPS .852 for home teams. They are also 6th vs. RHP and are scoring 7.90 runs per 9 vs. RHP with a .298 average. Their bullpen and starting pitching has kept this team from being a competitive team, but today they face a Mariners team that is just 15-46 in their last 65 as a road dog and they carry a 5.10 bullpen ERA on the road. |
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MLB | May 18, 2012 Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies |
Boston Red Sox +135 at 5DIMES |
Lost $100.0 |
|
Red Sox +135 3* PLAY Although Cole Hamels has given up just 4ER in his 4 career starts vs. the Red Sox and carries a 2.79 ERA at home this year I’m going with the Sox because for one they are #2 in OPS vs. LHP with a .842 so you know they are going to score runs unless Hamels just out duels them and goes a complete game. I don’t see him going a complete game against the Braves. Hamels has faced an average opponent with an OPS vs. LHP rank of 20.5. Now he faces the 2nd ranked team and oh by the way he’s not backed by a very good bullpen with an ERA of 7.66 over their last 10 games and a 5.36 on the year. Boston’s bullpen which struggled early has rebounded quickly posting a 1.19 ERA over their last 10 and a 3.74 on the year. Daniel Bard catches a break facing the Phillies. He’s used to facing off against dominant teams like the Rays, Indians and Blue Jays. He’s faced an average opponent ranked 16th vs. RHP in OPS. The Phillies are 19th so I believe he will enjoy facing the Phillies. Boston has suddenly won 6 of 7 because of their bullpen strength and that long with individual success against Hamels will be the difference. Cody Ross and Adrien Gonzalez have 6 HR vs. Hamels and the team has 117 AB .291 and a .903 OPS vs. Mr. Hamels. Boston is averaging 7 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games combined. Rays -130 2.5* Rays are 14-4 at home this year and 39-16 in their last 55 games as a favorite. Shields dominated the NL last year posting a 3-1 record and a 1.32 ERA while posting a 42:4 K/B ratio. He held batters to a .145 average and now he looks to hold one of the NL’s best offenses in check in the Braves. Tommy Hanson takes the mound for the Braves and I’m still a bit skeptical. Hanson over his last 4 vs. the AL posted a 9.78 ERA. May is his worst month as he posts a 4.18 career ERA and he has not a single start on turf while Shields has 58 over the last 3 years alone. Shields also has a 3.14 ERA in his last 17 May starts before this year. Hanson main struggles have been BB and the HR. Rays are ranked 3rd and 6th in walks and HR so it will be a major challenge if he can’t locate his FB. IF he does throw it for strikes the Rays are #1 in the league vs. the fastball. Rockies -131 4.5* MLB POD The Mariners have struggled to score runs and win on the road. They are now 1-12 on the road with a .216 average and 2.4 runs per 9. They’ll go on the road to face the Rockies who struggle to keep teams from scoring runs. One of the two have to change and I’m betting the Rockies will be able to score enough runs to over come anything the Mariners do. For one they throw a pitcher out there that the Mariners haven’t seen. White was solid vs. the Padres who are a similar offensive team to the Mariners. Mariners are actually ranked 26th and 30th vs. White’s two best pitches so I’m betting he’ll have some success against the struggling Mariners. Rockies have been great at home in interleague play. They are 35-16 in their last 51 IL vs. a RH starter. That RH starter is Kevin Millwood a guy that made 9 starts vs. them last year so you bet the Rockies know about his stuff. Cuddyer, Helton, and Giambi three classy veterans are a combined 31-81 against Millwood who has struggled pitching at Coors Field where the Rockies are #2 in OPS .852 for home teams. They are also 6th vs. RHP and are scoring 7.90 runs per 9 vs. RHP with a .298 average. Their bullpen and starting pitching has kept this team from being a competitive team, but today they face a Mariners team that is just 15-46 in their last 65 as a road dog and they carry a 5.10 bullpen ERA on the road. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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| I have been wagering on sports for eight years now. I am a former division II athlete with an undergrad in Sports Management and Masters in Business Administration. This is my real job, I claim it on my tax return. In January of 2009 I started Sports Bet Capping I use a betting philosophy that is backed by betting on an underdog that has a legitimate shot at winning the game outright. Although this varies from sport to sport. I never force plays and always give you a written analysis. All of my plays must meet a certain number of requirements before I considers them as a release. This includes my free pick releases. I use a variety of factors in my betting philosophy, such as statistical software, trend analysis, public betting %'s and other emotional advantages. This is the same strategy I used to win 64% of my College Football games in 2008. Some of you may know me as fritz218 on Covers where this record was clearly documented in the forums. Lastly, you must know that I bet on all of the games I recommend. When you lose I lose, something I do not take lightly. I am as competitive and determined as anyone you will meet which is why I have found success in this industry. |
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